Vol. 10, No. 06, June 2014 |
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Hurricane Season – Three Predictions for 2014
 Dr. William H. Gray |
Dept. of Atmospheric Science Note: CSU Professor Emeritus Bill Gray, PhD, received the first Robert and Joanne Simpson Award at the 2nd Annual National Tropical Weather Conference this year. The award recognized Gray’s "outstanding contribution to tropical meteorology and his distinguished role in pioneering the first seasonal hurricane forecast." |
As of June 2, we continue to foresee a below-average 2014Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. [The Tropical Meteorology Project, http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/] |
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NOAA
In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued [May 22], NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (www.noaanews.noaa.gov) is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.
The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.
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Above: NOAA sea surface temperatures on June 5, 2014. Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures and La Niña by unusually cool temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. For more information visit www.elnino.noaa.gov. |
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010.
The Weather Channel |
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After one of the quietest hurricane seasons in decades, forecasters with The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) predict a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The early outlook released March 24 calls for 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of which are predicted to attain major hurricane status (Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or stronger). This is slightly below the long-term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. "The early dynamical model runs suggest another relatively slow season," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of the The Weather Company. "Three independent statistical techniques all suggest 11 named storms this year." |
Cow Rescue Depends on Training
On Friday May16, the Collier County Sheriff's Office received a call from a citizen regarding a cow that was stuck in the mud. The CCSO Agriculture Bureau activated the Region 6 Technical Large Animal Emergency Rescue Team (TLAER) and members from the Collier County Sheriff's Office Agriculture Bureau. In addition, District Four Road Patrol Deputies, Lee County Sheriff's Office Agricultural Crimes Unit, The Hendry County Sheriff's Office Agricultural Patrol and the Corkscrew Fire Department responded.
Upon arrival the cow was found in the edge of a large lake stuck up to her neck. Using mud lances, nylon rescue straps, ropes, a rescue glide and water provided by the Corkscrew Fire Department, the cow was pulled by human power out of the mud. The cow was in good condition and was being monitored by its owner.
The following photos show the progression of events resulting in the rescue.
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The brief video clip (below) illustrates the teamwork needed to pull the cow out of the mud once all of the straps and ropes were put in place.
The UF Vet School’s John Haven notes: “This team went through their two year refresh training shortly before performing this rescue. They have participated in something like 14 rescues.”
Submitted by: Sgt. David Estes
Collier County Sheriff's Office, Special Operations Group
Agriculture Bureau and Mounted Patrol
david.estes@colliersheriff.org
Florida SARC Schedules Courses
The Florida State Animal Response Coalition is teaching “Small Animal Emergency Sheltering – Awareness Level” to promote effective response for animals during disasters. Registration is required, but due to grants from Florida Division of Emergency Management and U.S. Homeland Security, no fee is charged for attendance. This course is certified by FDEM as course code FL-003-RESP.
Date & Time: Saturday June 14, 8:00 am – 6:00 pm
Location: Old Town Hall, 1000 Town Hall Avenue, Jupiter
Date & Time: Saturday June 21, 8:00 am – 6:00 pm
Location: Flagler County Emergency Operations Center, 1769 E Moody Blvd., Bunnell
Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, 8:00 am – 6:00 pm
Location: Collier County Domestic Animal Services, 7610 Davis Blvd., Naples
Date & Time: Sunday, August 10, 8:00 am – 6:00 pm
Location: American Red Cross Capital Area Chapter, 1115 Easterwood Dr., Tallahassee
The Florida State Animal Response Coalition was formed by many diverse groups of highly qualified animal responders dedicated to protecting the entire family during disasters. When a hurricane, fire, tornado or other disaster threatens the state of Florida, we will be there to assist with teams of professionally trained volunteers dedicated to care for the animals that rely on us. For information and registration go to http://www.flsarc.org/Training.html or contact Melissa Forberg training@flsarc.org (352) 658-1224, Pam Burns pamburnssarc@gmail.com, Andy Bass training@flsarc.org or Consie Von Gontard training@flsarc.org. |